quote of the day

“During every preceding period of stock speculation and subsequent collapse there has been the same widespread idea that in some miraculous way, endlessly elaborated but never actually defined, the fundamental conditions and requirements of progress and prosperity have been changed, that old economic principles have been abrogated, that all economic problems have been solved, that industry has suddenly become more efficient than it ever was before … that business profits are destined to grow faster and without limit, and that the expansion of credit can have no end.”
 --Business Week, November 1929

apple growth stock?

source; http://www.minervini.com/blog/

who is winning the currency wars?

source:  http://www.merkinvestments.com/insights/2013/2013-05-08.php

Understanding German Politics

Inquiring minds in the US note the upcoming German election and may be wondering about the platforms of the major political parties. Reader Bernd from Germany explains.

Die Linke (The Left): Die Linke is made up of the former SED/PDS (The East German Communist Ruling Party), some former West German Communist and Socialist Parties and a “rebel group” of the SPD. They all have merged and are now called "Die Linke". By and large they have a communist/socialist platform, albeit not Stalinist. Their main requests are: dissolve NATO and replace it with a new organization to include Russia in it, end all wars, control or nationalize all relevant banks and some crucial industries, increase support for the poor, raise taxes for the rich (above income of 60k Euros gradually go to 75%), introduce a stiff wealth and inheritance  tax. They are pro Euro and want the introduction of Eurobonds immediately. To alleviate the economic crisis in Europe they advocate some serious deficit spending for social and work programs. They have voted against ESM; EFSF and Cyprus deal in Parliament.

SPD (Social Democrats): SPD is the grand old Social Democratic Party, with a wonderful and long tradition. SPD originated from the worker's movement. Its first party program is from 1869. It the only party that tried to stop Hitler's power grab by opposing the emergency laws in 1933. Many went to concentration camps for opposing Hitler. In post-World War II Germany SPD provided three Chancellors, Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder. All three Chancellors were major reformers in Germany for one or the other topic.  SPD lost its original power base in the wake of Schröder's reforms in the early 2000s. SPD is a staunch pro Euro party. They also want Eurobonds immediately, as well as a common fiscal policy, a bank union and a quick unification of Europe.

Die Grünen (The Green Party): Die Grünen started as a mix of 1968 communists/socialists and anti-nuclear energy activists in West Germany. The second part is made up of some left over former East German anti SED “rebels” who helped to bring down East Germany.  Today this is the party for so the so-called "politically correct". In Germany we call them the Latte Macchiato Moms/Dads. The typical party member is a well-paid Government official or teacher with a work week of 36 hours. They believe firmly in manmade climate change and want to tax and spend their way to eliminate the CO-2 footprint. No amount of money is too much for preventing climate change. They are staunch pro Euro advocates similar to the SPD.

Freie Demokratische Partei FDP (Free Democratic Party): originated from a mix of former liberal parties during the Weimar Republic with an originally clear idea on liberalism. The FDP once strongly supported human rights, civil liberties, and international openness, but has shifted from the center to the center-right over time. Today’s main goal is to get at least 5% of the popular vote, otherwise they will have no representation in parliament. They are a coalition partner to Merkel's CDU party but most of them would be hard pressed to state why. FDP may not pass the 5% threshold in the next election. FDP states that they wish Europe to return to the “No-Bail out Clause” and the Maastricht Agreement, however, in Parliament they voted for a massive breach of both agreements, following Merkel’s position.

CDU (Christian Democratic Union): CDU is a center-right, typically Catholic, typically pragmatic popular party. It is the party of most Chancellors now including Angela Merkel. I call it the "yes Chancellor Club". Merkel calls herself pragmatic, some German people call her "Mutti". Mutti in German means a cunning, but one minded pragmatist, who will reprimand/control her husband for coming home late from a bar. CDU is pro-euro but against Eurobonds. Under Merkel CDU has lost its profile and has made some erratic shifts in position, which is a major turnoff for many supporters. Notably Merkel’s agreement to the breach of all EU-Agreements and her shift to a so called “green energy” has alienated many voters.

CSU (Christian Social Union): CSU is the Bavarian sister to the CDU. Whereas CDU operates in 15 States, CSU is in Bavaria only, where it traditionally gets 50 plus percent of popular votes, thus catapulting it above 5% on federal level. Voter participation in Bavaria is traditionally above 75%. CSU follows Merkel, but tensions are rising. Many CSU members are far from convinced that Merkel is right. Most of legal obstacles against Merkel's Euro policies in front of the Federal Constitution Court come from members of the CSU. Due to its high degree of organization and its firm foundation in the center of Bavarian populace, CSU is rather influential in German Federal Politics.

Alternative für Deutschland) AfD (Alternative for Germany): AfD is a liberal-conservative party supported by many German economists. More than two-thirds of its initial supporters hold doctorates. Its main position is a return of the EU to the original meaning of the Maastricht agreement, alternatively a return to national currencies. The second major topic is the strengthening of German Democracy, advocating a Swiss – like model. In April 2013, the party held its first convention in Berlin, which was attended by about 1500 supporters. The convention elected the party leadership and adopted the party platform. The three elected speakers are economist Bernd Lucke, the entrepreneur Frauke Petry, and the publicist Konrad Adam. The key demand of AfD is to provide a mechanism for countries to exit the Eurozone. In old Germany, "liberal" was in regards to Civil Rights, not free-flowing money or other policies those in the US may associate with the word. Liberal for AfD is a bit different than for the current FDP

Source: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/04/understanding-german-politics.html

poker vs trading

April Showers

“Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgment that something else is more important than fear. The brave may not live forever, but the cautious do not live at all. From now on you'll be traveling the road between who you think you are and who you can be. The key is to allow yourself to make the journey.”

Meg Cabot

gold massacre

light crude weekly view

quote of the day

what is a "Currency War"?

Baltic Dry Index and Shanghai Index Correlation

chart of the day

source: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20130327.htm?T

quote of the day

corn

A London Cabbie explains the great EU bank robbery

comparative wage advantage

Average Monthly Salary

$3,099 Yokohama, Japan
$1,220 Seoul, South Korea
$888 Taipei, Taiwan
$235 Shenzhen, China
$148 Jakarta, Indonesia
$100 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
$47 Dhaka, Bangladesh

water running through a sine wave

long term inflation adjusted gold chart

quote of the day

Prince Philip to a Filipino nurse earlier:

“The Philippines must be half empty – you’re all here running the NHS.”

overbought and oversold markets

source: http://macromon.wordpress.com/

observation and analysis

Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it.
Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many.
Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books.
Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.
Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations.
But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason, and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.

- Siddhārtha Gautama (Buddha)

thought for the day

Top US exports for 2012

RANK	TOP 10 US EXPORTS, 2012	BILLIONS
1	Fuel oil	$60.2
2	Petroleum products	$57.0
3	Pharmaceutical preparations	$47.9
4	Industrial machines, other	$46.1
5	Civilian aircraft	$45.3
6	Semiconductors	$42.1
7	Telecommunications equipment	$38.3
8	Electric apparatus	$38.2
9	Nonmonetary gold	$36.3
10	Chemicals-organic	$35.6

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/02/the-new-age-of-americas-energy-abundance-the-top-two-us-exports-last-year-were-a-fuel-oil-and-b-petroleum-products/
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2013/pdf/trad1212.pdf

Barrons cover for Feb